Developments in the party and in the government have disturbed Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. With the political momentum increasing, the situation facing the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in AP appears to be grim due to developments in the party and government.
The shift of focus of the ministerial colleagues of Jagan Mohan Reddy has already taken place with ministers shouting at their detractors. As opposition parties are trying to get united, those in power are launching scathing attacks against the opposition which mainly consists of the TDP, the Jana Sena Party (JSP) and the BJP.
The main focus of the YSRCP is the TDP and the JSP. The YSRCP’s main focus is to scuttle their unity efforts. If one looks at the statistics of the 2019 Assembly elections, the YSRCP won due to the vertical split of votes. Interestingly, the JSP played a crucial role in the elections.
The TDP which got most of the seats in the 2014 elections due to the support extended by the JSP headed by Pawan Kalyan, had to taste defeat when it found no support from the same JSP in 2019. The JSP also contested separately in that election.
The YSRCP registered a huge victory that has never happened in the history of undivided Andhra Pradesh by bagging 86% (151) of the seats in the 175-Member AP Assembly.
Since the YSRCP had lost an opportunity to rule the state in 2014 due to a difference of just one per cent of votes against N. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, voters developed sympathy for YS Jagan Mohan Reddy as he is the son of the legendary former Chief Minister Dr YS Rajasekhara Reddy.
The TDP won the 2014 elections because of the alliance it had with the BJP. Pawan supported Modi in that election. But differences surfaced later between the two parties as Pawan questioned the NDA government headed by Modi.
Pawan contested the 2019 election without an alliance. The anti-incumbency factor added to the situation of no alliance between the BJP and the JSP and the YSRCP emerged victorious.
Noticing the public support of Modi in 2019, Pawan decided to become a friend of the BJP after the election and the BJP declared the Pawan-led JSP as its lone friend in AP.
TDP supremo N. Chandrababu Naidu who was known to be a friend of the BJP earlier also realised that the latter has people’s support and he gave up efforts to unite anti-BJP forces at the national level.
But in the emerging situation, anti-YSRCP forces have to unite to fight the YSRCP. The BJP is playing a political game with the YSRCP by simultaneously allowing its AP unit to fight against the state government’s policies on various issues and enjoying the latter’s support in Parliament for the approval of Bills.
It is necessary for the BJP to get the support of a regional party from AP as long as it cannot win more seats. Due to this, the BJP is unable to declare the YSRCP as its opponent like the Congress and the Communist parties with whom it has serious ideological differences.
At present, the BJP appears to be readying itself for fighting the YSRCP in AP with a possible alliance of the TDP and the JSP. But it can’t be ruled out if the same BJP is ready for friendship with the YSRCP in the post-poll scenario based on its political needs at that time.
Fully aware of the fact that the opposition parties in AP like the TDP, the JSP and the BJP might join hands against it, the YSRCP appears to be thinking of alliances.
At this crucial moment, the internal situation both in the party and the government has disturbed Chief Minister Jagan with differences surfacing among party cadres. While the YSRCP leadership is encouraging the campaign ‘why not 175/175,’ serious differences are cropping up everywhere among cadres.
Jagan is relying on his welfare scheme ‘Nava Ratnaalu’ and his confidence levels are very high. He thinks that he should retain power at any cost like his father Dr YS Rajasekhara Reddy in 2009.
YSR toiled much to get a second win for the Congress. But he didn’t get the same number of seats as in 2004. He got just eight seats more than the halfway mark in the 294-member House in the undivided AP Assembly.
But his son Jagan is showing abnormal confidence and is asking cadres why not 175/175! Strictly speaking this kind of confidence might be ridiculous as there is no possibility of bagging all the seats in the legislature. With the emergence of possible alliances among parties, there might be no scope for registering such a fete. It will not be possible even for the most powerful leader to get 100% votes in a constituency.
Chief Minister Jagan announced that the performance of 30 MLAs of his strong contingent of 151 is not up to the mark, particularly in the programme of ‘taking our government to every doorstep.’
He even warned that there might not get tickets again if the same level of performance continues in days to come. The number of such ‘underperformers’ could be more as many legislators are being questioned by the public over the lack of development in their constituencies.
Ironically the same people who expressed dissatisfaction over development are the beneficiaries of welfare schemes implemented by Jagan’s government. This is really a shocking thing for YSRCP leaders as their leadership has reposed confidence in the beneficiaries of welfare schemes.
With a view to winning them, the YSRCP is ‘exhorting’ the public on whether they should benefit from the government or ask about basic facilities. Around 87% of the state’s population have become beneficiaries of YSRCP’s welfare programmes.
Many YSRCP MLAs are sore at the things going on in the party and they think that the party is not treating them satisfactorily. The way of dealing with senior legislators by the leadership has hurt them.
Senior legislator Anam Ramanarayan Reddy has been stripped of his in-charge post in Venkatagiri. Ramanarayan is the senior most legislator in the House and has the experience of holding a cabinet portfolio in NTR’s government in the early 1980s.
Moreover, Ramanarayan was a cabinet colleague of Dr YS Rajasekhara Reddy whose leadership has been kept intact by the Anam brothers particularly in Nellore district. Dr YSR also was reluctant to induct senior legislators in those days like V. Purushottam Reddy and Gade Venkat Reddy who were legislators from 1967, that is, 11 years before YSR started politics in 1978.
YSR had set up a Telangana regional development board and had made Purushottam Reddy as its chairman and had inducted Venkat Reddy into his cabinet. From these developments one can conclude that Jagan needs to be more flexible like his father.
