SNCN ACHARYULU
Hyderabad
The upcoming Assembly elections in the Telugu states are going to be crucial for the very survival of two hitherto major political parties: Congress in Telangana and Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, given the parties’ dwindling relevance in the respective states.
In Telangana, the Congress has been away from power for over a decade now. Although the Congress is credited with granting statehood for Telangana, the people of the newly carved state reposed their faith in the Telangana Rashtra Samiti, which has since become Bharat Rashtra Samiti. Due to the same factor, the Congress has almost disappeared from Andhra Pradesh.
In Telangana, the Congress has pockets of influence and areas with public sympathy for granting statehood; yet the party leaders failed to capitalise on this. Post bifurcation, the Congress is going to face the Assembly elections for the third time. If the Congress fails once again in the coming Assembly elections, it will meet the same fate as its units in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
The BharatiyaJanata Party is ready to step in as an alternative to the Congress in Telangana. Another major problem for theCongress is the onerous task of preventing its MLAs from defecting to other parties. In both 2014 and 2018 Assembly elections, the Congress won a good number of seats though people did not vote the party to power. On both occasions, many of the Congress MLAs defected to TRS, leaving the grand old party in a pathetic situation.
In the coming Assembly elections also, if BRS comes to power; the same thing may repeat.There are projections that the BJP is going to win a good number of Assembly seats. If the Congress fails to keep its flock together, the BJP will occupy the main opposition place within the Assembly and outside the House as well. In these circumstances,the Congress presently has only two major tasks: one is coming to power and the other is to prevent its MLAs from defecting to other parties. Both are difficult tasksfor the Congress leadership.
Meanwhile, in Andhra Pradesh the existence of TDP depends on the outcome of the coming Assembly elections. It must win in the next Assembly, not just manage to get a few additional seats. If TDP fails to win, it will become very difficult for the brass to protectparty leaders and MLAs.
YSR Congress president and AP Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is young with a long political future. TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu is 72 years old now. As of now,there is no alternative leader in the party to replace him. If Chandrababu does not become the Chief Minister again after the coming Assembly elections, he may have to forget occupying CM position permanently.
