PNS|New Delhi
Intelligence sources estimate that Pakistan can engage in high-intensity combat for just four days. This is mainly due to the shortage of artillery ammunition caused by Pakistan’s opportunistic arms exports to Ukraine and Israel.
Sources said Pakistan’s decision to sell arms abroad has substantially eroded its fighting capabilities. The export of munitions has left weapons without sufficient ammunition, making them sitting ducks in case of an all-out war.
Pakistan’s military has been quietly balancing economic desperation against strategic survival. The nation’s decision to export vast quantities of ammunition to Ukraine and Israel has left its armed forces incapable of combat.
The crisis goes back to 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war triggered a global demand for munitions. Facing an economic crisis marked by debt and food insecurity, Pakistan seized the opportunity.
The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) started selling large quantities of artillery shells, rockets and small arms ammunition to Ukraine. Between February and March 2023 alone, Pakistan shipped 42,000 122 mm BM-21 rockets, 60,000 155 mm howitzer shells, and 1,30,000 122 mm rockets for USD 364 million.
About 80 per cent of the money went directly to the Pakistan Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. By FY 2022-23, Pakistan’s arms exports jumped to USD 415 million, a staggering 3,000 per cent increase compared to the previous year’s USD 13 million. But this led to a rapid depletion of domestic stocks essential for the 6,00,000-strong army.
The army’s main weapons like the M109 howitzers and BM-21 rocket systems, are now under-equipped as their munitions have been diverted. Pakistan’s new SH-15 Mounted Gun Systems (MGS), procured under the assumption that ammunition would be indigenously produced, now stand idle due to POF’s diverted production lines.
Without ammunition, these guns are little more than showpieces. This is particularly true of SH-15, which was recently showcased in a military exercise. In reality, they are without combat-ready ammunition.
Analysts estimate that Pakistan’s ammo reserves can now support only 96 hours of high-intensity warfare. The strategic imbalance is compounded by India’s rising defence capabilities.
New Delhi’s arms imports have surged 61 per cent between 2015-19 and 2020-24. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s economic woes have deepened.
Inflation is rampant, forex reserves are dwindling, and debt continues to mount. These constraints have forced the military to cut rations, suspend exercises and cancel war games.
Former Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa himself admitted that Pakistan lacks both ammunition and financial capability to engage in a long war with India. The depletion of war reserves has deeply alarmed Pakistan’s military leadership.
Intelligence suggests that the issue was a key topic during the Special Corps Commanders Conference held on May 2. Although emergency ammunition depots have been established near the India-Pakistan border, their use is questionable.
The irony is stark – while Pakistan’s military elite profited from arms exports, the country’s ability to fight a war – has been compromised. Just four days of combat readiness is a grave weakness for a nation that has long prided itself on its military resilience.
