Ratna Column-Political games on for possible combinations in AP

Much ahead of the next Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh, the principal political players in the state are highlighting various issues to make out a strong case for who deserves to govern the state during 2024-29.

The ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and principal opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) are drawing up strategies for the hustings with a view to outwitting their political opponents. In this context, the special meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Jana Sena Party (JSP) chief Pawan Kalyan at Visakhapatnam recently is significant.The meeting was got up at the eleventh hour, surprising even JSP leadership. Modi is believed to have evinced interest in meeting Pawan only to fill the perceived gap between the two sides.

It may be recalled that Pawan had declared unconditional support to Modi during the 2014 elections and even shared credit for bringing the TDP-BJP combine to power. But within a short period, chinks developed in the ties between the two parties, with Pawan criticizing the Modi government for not sanctioning Special Category Status (SCS) to Andhra Pradesh. Then ruler of the state N. Chandrababu Naidu followed suit and snapped ties with BJP for the same reason. His reputation took a beating during that period because of his flip-flops on SCS. As damage control, he made his ministers quit from the Union government headed by Modi.

Having realized that Modi enjoys wide public support going by the outcome of the 2019 polls, Pawan has now joined hands with BJP again without any hesitation. He is now considered the only ‘official friend’ in AP as far as probable alliances among various political parties concerned. Pawan is delighted over his meeting with Modi after a long gap of eight years.

Modi’s strategic meeting with his potential electoral partner in AP has heated up politics in the state. All along, TDP and JSP have been chalking out programmes separately and highlighting the alleged failures of the YSRCP government. On his part, Chief Minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy is determined to decimate both TDP and JSP. The two opposition parties have made it clear that they would work for a united opposition against the YSRCP at the hustings. They however did not go into the specifics of their joint stir and election strategy. This is because of the hazy picture regarding possible alliance with BJP, though it is amply clear that a united fight would be launched by the Opposition against the Jaganmohan Reddy government.

As per statistics of votes polled by political parties in the 2019 elections, there are many Assembly constituencies across the state that recorded substantial votes polled by both TDP and JSP, indicating a split in anti-government vote banks, which helped YSRCP bag 151 seats out of 175. The concept of a united opposition is causing worry in the ruling party. Only to keep their flock together, representatives of YSRCP are making personal accusations and criticism against TDP and JSP, more so against Pawan.

“Contest all 175 seats in the state if you have guts?” and “Declare daringly that you would become chief minister” are some of the barbs that the ruling party has directed at its political opponents. Chandrababu Naidu and his family members had to face severe criticism, including those of personal nature. The issue of Pawan’s marriages became a hot topic at one point of time.

Launching a united front in AP before the 2024 elections is a challenging task for TDP and JSP. Jagan is confident of retaining power solely on the strength of the YSRCP government’s welfare schemes. People who got financial assistance as part of the state government’s welfare measures would likely vote only for YSRCP. “Don’t get all the details of developmental programmes; they may only confuse you. Please think whether your family benefited from the government schemes” is the ringing message coming from none other than the Chief Minister.

Jagan is bent upon defeating TDP again in the 2024 elections so that an ageing Chandrababu Naidu would become inactive in politics before the 2029 elections.The TDP, however, wants to build on its organizational strength to bounce bank in state politics with the support of like-minded parties. The chiefs of TDP and JSP know fairly well that their political fortunes would be blighted in the absence of a united opposition against the Jaganmohan Reddy government. So, the influence of BJP counts for both of them.

As far as Modi is concerned, in any post-poll scenario of 2024 both TDP and YSRCP would be within his reach. Jagan may choose to be a supporter of the party that comes to power at the Centre, considering the DA cases pending against him in courts. For him, creating hurdles for TDP and JSP in their unity efforts is immediate priority.