SNCN ACHARYULU
Hyderabad
It appears that the political picture in both the Telugu states will be similar during the Assembly elections. The only difference is that the fight will be between different political parties.
Going by the present political situation in both Telugu states there will be a triangular fight during the Assembly elections.
In Telangana, the triangular fight will be between the ruling BRS, the main opposition Congress and the BJP. In Andhra Pradesh, the triangular fight will be between the ruling YSRC, the main opposition TDP, and the Jana Sena–BJP alliance.
In Telangana, the number of seats the BRS is going to win depends on how the BJP splits anti-BRS votes. Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh, the number of seats the YSRC is going to win depends on how the Jana Sena–BJP alliance is going to split the anti-YSRC votes.
The main fight will be between the BRS and the Congress in Telangana and between the YSRC and the TDP in AP.
While in Telangana the BRS is expecting to win around 100 seats out of 119 Assembly seats, in Andhra Pradesh the YSRC is expecting to win more Assembly seats than in the last Assembly elections.
The YSRC won 151 seats out of 175 Assembly seats in the last Assembly elections. At the same time the main opposition parties, the Congress in Telangana and the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, have strong hopes of coming to power.
In Telangana, the fate of the BRS and the Congress will be in the hands of the BJP. In Andhra Pradesh, the fate of the YSRC and the TDP will be in the hands of the Jana Sena–BJP combine.
In Telangana, the BRS wants the BJP to strengthen and become an equal of the Congress. If the Congress and the BJP have equal strength anti-BRS votes will get split equally between these two parties which will help the BRS.
In Andhra Pradesh, the YSRC wants the Jana Sena and the TDP should have an alliance. Unlike in Telangana in Andhra Pradesh, the caste factor plays a major role in elections. In Andhra Pradesh Kapu voters are crucial in deciding election outcomes.
At present, Kapu voters are divided between the YSRC and the Jana Sena. The YSRC thinks that if the Jana Sena has an alliance with the TDP most Kapu voters will turn towards their party.
If the TDP and the Jana Sena have an alliance the CM candidate will be Chandrababu and Kapu voters will not vote for the TDP–Jana Sena alliance to make Chandrababu the CM. Chandrababu has strong hopes of becoming the CM than Pawan Kalyan.
Unless there is a strong wave against the ruling parties the main opposition parties will not get a chance to come to power in both the Telugu states. But there is no such wave against the BRS in Telangana and the YSRC in Andhra Pradesh.
