Actor-turned-politician and chief of Jana Sena Party(JSP) Pawan Kalyan, given his somewhat weak organizational set-up, may not be a threat to ruling parties in the Telugu states; yet, he has varying levels of influence in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
In AP, Pawan Kalyan is a formidable political force in his individual capacity; whereas, in Telangana, he can, at the most, strengthen the hands of his ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). His importance in the political sphere is attributed largely to the community to which he belongs – Kapu. The Kapus, despite their predominant presence in society, have not had the opportunity to rule for decades. Pawan has now become a rallying point for them.
Political parties have been gauging Pawan’s potential influence on the electorate from the caste standpoint, as Kapushave been making effortsfor years to project a leader from thecommunity who could also become the CM face. Leaders of the community have been advocating reservations that Kapushad during the regime of former chief minister DamodaramSanjeevayya in the early ’60s! Successive governments however put a full stop to such quota demands. Still, on the plank of reservations, sections of the Kapu community, including Telaga, Balija &Ontari, have occasionally prepared themselves for a show of strength. Massive rallies in the name of ‘Kapu Nadu’ were organised in 1982 and 1988 at Vijayawada. Megastar and Pawan’s elder brother Chiranjeevi had extended cooperation to former Congress MLA from Vijayawada(East) and icon of theKapu community Vangaveeti Mohan Ranga Rao in those days. Later, Chiranjeevi launched his own political party ‘PrajaRajyam’. After the defeat of the party in the 2009 elections, he offered to merge PRP with Congress and kept himself totally away from politics.
The other two major castes — Kamma & Reddy -could keep the numerically superior Kapu community at bay in the political power structure. Now, with the emergence of Pawan as a force to reckon with in politics via JSP, there are hopes that the Kapu community would finda suitable and strong figure to provide leadership to the community. Pawan had initially extended his support to the Narendra Modi government following the 2014 elections with a view to see the end of the Congress rule in the state and at the Centre,since bifurcation of AP was unacceptable for him. As BJP and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) arrived at a poll pact, Pawan’s support helped that combine. Pawan was an influential figure in the 2014 elections in AP and that helped TDP-BJP combine to hit the target. Later, Pawan expressed his unhappiness at the unhelpful attitude of the Modi government in extending a helping hand to the residual state of AP and distanced himself from BJP. Subsequently, Pawan’s party contested polls on its own. Due to the triangular fight that ensued causing major splits in votes, the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) headed by YS Jaganmohan Reddy emerged victorious with a huge margin of seats. YSRCP won 151 Assembly seats out of 175 in the House. After realising the influence of Modi with his second consecutive victory in 2019, Pawan decided to have political friendship with BJP, which had declared Pawan as its official election partner in AP. Incidentally, Chandrababu Naidu also realised the importance of BJP. He stopped his efforts of uniting anti-Modi forces at the national level. Now Chandrababu is an undeclared friend of BJP. Both TDP and BJP have since understood the need for waging a war unitedly against Jagan.
Jagan has won the hearts of the masses with a slew of welfare schemes. This factor has influenced Naidu and Pawan to declarethat they would go together in the days to come. People feel that a possible TDP-JSP-BJP combine may influence voters against YSRCP.
Since Pawan has played a crucial role in both 2014 and 2019 elections, this time he may go further. He has vowed to unseat Jaganmohan Reddy at any cost. YSRCP has initiated a personal tirade against Pawan Kalyan, accusing him of polygamy!
As thing stand, it is simply not possible for any Chief Minister, including Jaganmohan Reddy, to ignore the Kapu community. Even Chandrababu Naidu must appreciate the aspirations of theKapu community, while aiming at the hot seat.Pawan might play a decisive role with his friend BJP. If he joins hands with TDP also tomorrow, he could turn the tables on others.
In Telangana, though there is hardly any organisational set-up for JSP, it has become influential. Pawan helped BJP in the GHMC polls in which BJP registered impressive win. On the same lines, Pawan may help BJP realise its dream of coming to power in Telangana. BJP may benefitfrom Pawan’s support.
In this way, Pawan has potential to influence voters directly in AP and indirectly in TS.
