M D Ratna Kumar
Senior Journalist
The message of the Munugode Assembly bypoll is clear: no respite for Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao despite his gargantuan efforts to crush opposition parties, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party. The situation is such that danger signals from BJP remain for TRS ahead of the 2023 Assembly elections, though the pink party is gearing up for a hat-trick.
The BJP, despite its failure to grab the Munugodu seat, has proved its fighting spirit. There is no longer any doubt that the electoral battle of 2023 in Telangana will be between TRS and BJP. From the beginning, BJP has always tried to displace the Congress in Telangana politics so as to become the principal opposition in the state, before pursuing its dream of grabbing power in India’s youngest.
The situation for which BJP had been waiting unfolded with the bifurcation, which saw residual Andhra Pradesh left with a sizeable Muslim minority population.It may be recalled that BJP had rejected the demand for the creation of a separate Telangana State during the first innings of the National Democratic Alliance in 2000. The BJP had insisted on passage of a unanimous resolution by the legislative Assembly of undivided Andhra Pradesh, while citing reasons for rejecting the demand for Telangana State.
The same BJP flip-flopped after 20 years. The BJP, though it was in the Opposition, silently watched every development related to AP’s reorganization. The BJP turned a blind eye to the implementation of the unanimous resolution adopted by a voice vote in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly rejecting the bifurcation bill sent by the Union government. This was contrary to BJP’s stance on the formation of new states in the country.
The BJP has since sharpened its strategy in Telangana, while targeting minority people. Given BJP’s rise, from having just 2 seats to grabbing 86 seats between 1984 & 1989 elections, the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) had warned against bifurcation of undivided AP on the grounds that minority people in Telangana would be targeted by BJP if TS was granted statehood.It is a different matter that today the MIM is indirectly helping BJP to dominate its rivals in states like UP and Bihar by splitting anti-BJP vote bank in the name of shielding minorities. In the case of TS politics, MIM has to oppose BJP for its own survival.
This emerging situation might cause extreme discomfort to the TRS. For, fighting the Congress as the principal opposition would have been a lot easier for TRS.There is a view among a section of BJP leaders that the party high command should not have made Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy to resign, thereby necessitating Munugode polls. The party could have instead assigned him another job for targeting TRS ahead of the Assembly elections next year. Considering that Rajagopal Reddy did not win, it is not clear whether the BJP would dump him in the days ahead or be tolerant towards him.
Rajagopal’s brother and Congress MP Komatireddy Venkata Reddy faces a big embarrassment in view of his brother’s defeat. He has to save his face in the Congress party and no other option is left for him. The Congress leadership too may forgive him in case he tenders an apology for his remarks against the Congress’ prospects in the Munugode bypolls.
In this context, TRS cadre and a section of party leaders are wary of the persisting dangers from BJP. As BJP appears to have attained the principal opposition party status in TS, by the time of the next Assembly elections in the state, there could be polarization of voters in line with BJP’s strategy at the national level.
The BJP won two Lok Sabha seats — Kakinada and Rajahmundry — in the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, when it had no organizational strength. That situation has changed for future elections in Telangana.It remains to be seen how TRS is going to tame the anti- incumbency factor with focus on its populist and welfare schemes. A state that was born with revenue surplus eight years ago is now caught in trap due to debts totaling nearly Rs. 4 lakh crores!KCR will have a tough time projecting himself as an efficient ruler amidst the aforementioned factors. If he can tackle the lurking danger of religious polarization in TS, he can bowl himself into national politics with aplomb!
